Poland's retail sales rose slightly in January, the government's statistical agency said yesterday, a rare positive indicator in an otherwise gloomy period which may signal an unexpected resilience in the economy.

Sales rose 1.3 per cent year on year in January, a sign that Polish shoppers have not put away their wallets.

"We were expecting the numbers to be a lot worse," said Monika Kurtek, an economist with Bank BPH. "The crisis is causing a slowdown in sales, but less drastically than . . . expected."

Poles have enjoyed double-digit wage increases in recent years, income taxes were cut this year and consumer finance is available.

NG2, a large Polish footwear retailer,saw same-store sales jump by 40 per cent in the first six weeks of the year compared with the same period in 2008 and is planning to open at least 132 new shops this year.

Poland has a relatively large domestic market: only 40 per cent of gross domestic product is tied to exports, about half the level of more open economies such as the Czech Republic and Slovakia. That could provide some insulation against the global economic crisis, adding to the government's arguments that Poland is unfairly lumped in with the rest of central Europe, a region including relatively stable countries such as the Czech Republic as well as countries inendangered areas such as the Baltics and the Balkans.

Poland is also hoping to benefit from companies' shifting production from western Europe to take advantage of lower labour costs. The government investment agency forecasts foreign direct investment this year will be about €7bn ($9bn, £6bn) compared with €12bn in 2008.

If those optimistic assumptions come true, the government's current scenario of GDP growth of 1.7 per cent for this year may be achievable, said Ms Kurtek.

But risks of a worse outcome still loom. Unemployment in January jumped to 10.5 per cent and industrial production dropped by an annual 14.9 per cent in January compared with a drop of 4.4 per cent in December.